When Statistics are Manipulated

Perhaps you've seen the latest report debunking the effectiveness of teen virginity pledges. In the late 80's and early 90's, many churches began promoting the idea of asking teenagers to take a pledge to remain virgins until their wedding day. This often involves signing a card and perhaps wearing a chastity ring. (I took one, albeit not the formal "True Love Waits" version most churches used.)

This week, news agencies are reporting the findings of Janet E. Rosenbaum, a post doctoral fellow at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. She is arguing that research now states that virginity pledges have no positive impact on teen sexual behavior, but they do have the negative impact of making teens less likely to use protection against STD's.

What you may not notice if you simply glance at the headlines is that no new research was actually conducted by Dr. Rosenbaum. She merely reinterpreted data from previous studies, whose findings she didn't like. Furthermore, she came to her conclusions by outright eliminating some of the samples from the surveys used.

In her own words..."I used the same data as previous studies but a different statistical method."

ABC news summarized her work as follows:

"This method allowed Rosenbaum to compare those who had taken a virginity pledge with similar teens who hadn't taken a pledge but were likely to delay having sex, she said. She added that she didn't include teens who were unlikely to take a pledge. "

Huh? She "didn't include teens who were unlikely to take a pledge?" Comparing teen pledgers to non-pledgers is the entire point of the research! By only comparing pledgers to teens who probably would have pledged had anyone bothered to ask them to is to defeat the entire purpose of the virginity pledge to begin with. Nobody is claiming that there is something magical about a True Love Waits card, which is exactly what Dr. Rosenbaum set out to disprove. What's important are the values that are being imparted in the process of the challenge. And if you are only going to compare teens who are taught those values with other teens who are also taught those values (but didn't technically sign their name to a card), what exactly have you proven? Absolutely nothing.

It's embarrassing when you see someone so blatantly manipulate statistics to try to disprove the validity of Christian values. And when so many news venues are eager to report the opinion of a doctor who actually didn't do any research whatsoever tells you how much the Bible is under attack by our culture today. But we need not worry about whether or not God's plan for sex is best or whether or not it works. I have counseled many couples who were dealing with relational baggage decades after their wedding that was directly related to their decision not to wait until marriage. However, I have never counseled a couple who waited until their wedding day and regretted it.